Near-rational exuberance

Description

"We study how the use of judgement or "add-factors" in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in standard macroeconomic environments. Examples include a simple asset pricing model and the New Keynesian monetary policy framework. Inclusion of judgement in forecasts can lead to self-fulfilling fluctuations, but without the requirement that the underlying rational expectations equilibrium is locally indeterminate. We suggest ways in which policymakers might avoid unintended outcomes by adjusting policy to minimize the risk of exuberance equilibria"--Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site.

Subjects

Series Statement

• Working paper ;
• 2004-025A
• Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis : Online) ;

Links

• http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2004-025/
• URL

Other Editions

• Near-rational exuberanceElectronic resourceFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis2004-01-01
• Near-rational exuberanceEuropean Central Bank2005-01-01